changelog

What we shipped, newest first. Specific, not marketing.

2026-06-19

  • Listing signal now tracks real exchange listings — Binance & Bybit launchpads plus new spot-market detection on Binance, Upbit, and OKX. Dropped the Pump.fun / Raydium memecoin-launch firehose, which was ~98% of the old listing feed with no tradeable edge (the listing edge was real CEX listings all along).
  • New public price endpoints: GET /price/{coin} and GET /prices?coins=BTC,ETH,SOL — current spot/mid from Hyperliquid, no auth.
  • New /state and /state/{coin} (Pro): one call returns the unified market state — macro regime + composite, proven signal types, price, levels, and per-coin consensus — instead of stitching several endpoints.
  • Macro Pulse now anchored by a deterministic macro composite: net liquidity (Fed balance sheet − TGA − RRP), dollar index, real yields, the 2s10s curve, M2 and VIX (FRED data), combined into a weighted z-score regime that the daily brief explains. We backtested it over a full BTC cycle before shipping — and wired it honestly: it informs context only, not a directional confidence nudge, until the weights are re-fit (the raw read was contrarian, not trend-following).
  • ETF flows: added a free SoSoValue source covering BTC + ETH + SOL, and reclassified ETF net flow as context (non-directional). A backtest found ETF inflow does not predict forward returns — it is a coincident/lagging demand print (SOL inflows were contrarian), so we publish it as context rather than a buy/sell signal.
  • New free data sources: on-chain valuation (Coin Metrics — MVRV, exchange in/outflows + reserves, active addresses; the on-chain leg of the Macro Pulse composite), token-unlock calendar (DeFiLlama emissions — a new bearish supply-shock signal type), aggregate stablecoin supply trend (DeFiLlama), fresher daily TGA (US Treasury) into the net-liquidity read, and CME BTC/ETH futures gap (Yahoo). Valuation/flow/supply reads enter as context; only token unlocks are directional, and they self-prove via the forward-return gate.
  • New technical-indicator suite: GET /indicators/{coin} returns RSI, MACD, SMA/EMA (20/50/200 + 200-week), Stochastic, and Fibonacci levels computed from Hyperliquid OHLC, plus a plain-language trend/momentum read — also folded into /state/{coin}. The classic TA layer alongside our on-chain + macro data.
  • /state/{coin} now leads with a confident directional headline even when the proven-gate consensus is thin: it uses the forward-return-proven edge call when present, otherwise a clearly-labelled contextual blend of the macro composite, signal atmosphere, and technicals — so the answer is never an empty 'neutral'.
  • New narrative brief: GET /state/{coin}/brief returns a readable, LLM-written market analysis (current read, key + structural levels, macro/on-chain, technicals, outlook) — the prose layer over /state, grounded only in our own data.
  • Added 4-year-cycle context to /state: deterministic halving phase (days since the 2024-04 halving, cycle phase, % through) plus an MVRV valuation band (capitulation/value/neutral/froth/euphoria) as the measured cycle locator. A projected cycle-low window (anchored to the cycle ATH + the historical ~364-383d post-ATH cadence) is included strictly as labelled context — n=3 cycles, explicitly not a forecast.

2026-06-17

  • Stablecoin-flow signal now also tracks net USDT/USDC inflow to exchange wallets — capital staged on exchanges ahead of deployment, not just new issuance. A leading liquidity read (research: stablecoin inflow to exchanges leads short-horizon BTC/ETH returns).
  • DEX liquidation-cluster signals are now non-directional: a cluster is a price level for stop-loss / take-profit placement, not an entry direction. Liquidity predicts volatility, not direction — so the cluster informs risk, and the directional call comes from elsewhere.
  • Added a cost-aware filter to the trade-signal gate: a call is only flagged trade_signal when its expected move clears round-trip trading cost. A move too small to beat fees + slippage is downgraded to a watch, not a trade.

2026-06-10

  • Proven-tradeable gate now measures forward return as excess over BTC (real alpha) instead of the same asset held long — a measurement fix that surfaces edge the old baseline hid.
  • Trade-signal gate is now per-(type, direction) and regime-aware: a type can be flagged in one direction and not the other, and the proven side adapts as the market regime turns.
  • Retired the exchange-netflow whale direction heuristic (it did not predict price); directional whale reads now come from Hyperliquid leaderboard positions.
  • Added whale_position and macro_flow to the documented signal types; /signals now accepts signal_type=whale_position.

2026-06-06

  • End-to-end collection→delivery audit; per-source edge ranking; watchdog coverage extended across all watchers.
  • Concurrent dual-backend classification pool (local + hosted) for ~2.3× throughput.
  • Built our own DEX liquidation map (real on-chain positions with exact liq prices) — charts at /charts/liqmap.

2026-06-04

  • Signal-quality overhaul: feed de-noised, the proven gate switched to live forward-return ground truth, /proof + the site reworked for honesty.
  • Conviction field (strong/notable/watch/none) supersedes the deprecated action_hint.

2026-06-01

  • First automated test suite + deploy gate with rollback for the intel pipeline.
  • Health-monitor moved to a 10-minute systemd timer with email fallback.

2026-05-27

  • Migrated the pipeline data store to self-hosted PostgreSQL.
  • Whale + smart-money watchers rewritten on first-party data sources.

Track record measured on real prices at /proof. Full API in /docs.