EVERY CALL. ON THE RECORD.
No curated backtests. No survivor bias. Every directional signal is
measured against real post-signal prices and posted here live —
wins, losses, and the types we demote. This page renders the
exact gate the pipeline uses to flag
conviction: strong, so it can never claim edge the
product doesn't actually act on.
The gate
Every signal type is forced through the same three checks, per direction, regime-aware. Pass all three → the API flags it. Fail any → it stays published here as intel only. No type is grandfathered in.
The full audit — failures included
Types that don't clear the bar stay on the board as intel only. Public demotion is the feature: when edge decays, this board says so before our marketing does.
Every directional signal is measured against real post-signal price
action — Hyperliquid 1-hour candles — at the horizon where each type is
proven (1h, 4h or 24h) over a rolling 30-day window. For each signal type we publish the win rate, the mean
return of the trade itself, the mean excess vs BTC over the
same window, and 95% confidence intervals. A type is marked
proven only when it clears 30+ measured signals AND
both beats BTC AND is profitable on its own — judged per
(type, direction) and regime, not on the pooled blend. (So a
type can read proven here while its pooled excess-return CI,
shown in the table, still dips below zero — the pool mixes a winning
direction with a losing one; the gate scores them separately.) Beating
BTC alone isn't enough — a type that only looks good by being short in
a downtrend, while still losing money, does not qualify. The live
trade_signal gate applies this same per-(type, direction),
regime-aware test, and additionally
downgrades any call whose expected move is too small to clear round-trip
trading cost (fees + slippage) — a move you can't profit from after
costs isn't a trade.
Edge accumulation
Does the per-signal edge above actually compound, or is it a few lucky outliers? Below is an illustrative account starting at index 100 that takes every proven-type signal, one at a time, risking 1% of equity per signal and compounding the realized 24h return — in fire-time order. Fixed fractional size, no leverage, no stacking. Illustrative of edge accumulation on measured returns, not a live-traded or guaranteed account.
We grade our own grades
Every pre-trade check verdict we hand out is logged the moment we give it and scored at its horizon against real prices. If our grades mean anything, A-graded setups outperform F-graded ones. Small sample for now — we show it anyway, from day one.
A type is shown as forward-return proven only when its
live post-signal price record clears 30+ measured signals AND both beats
BTC and is profitable on its own — evaluated per (type, direction) and
regime, at a 95% confidence interval above zero. These are the types we
flag conviction: strong in the API. Measured on real prices for informational purposes only — not
financial advice, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
See terms.
These numbers update whether they flatter us or not.
Pipe the proven signals straight into your agent — REST, WebSocket, Webhook, MCP, or x402.