Macro Brief: Risk-Off — Bearish BTC, Bearish ETH

Sticky CPI flips the macro regime to risk-off. Bearish bias for BTC and ETH headed into Retail Sales.

Data sources: ForexFactory, Alternative.me Fear & Greed, CoinGecko

Macro Brief: Risk-Off — Bearish BTC, Bearish ETH

The CPI print on May 12 broke the macro consensus. 3.7% year-over-year is not a rounding error — it is a regime change. The market is now firmly in a risk-off posture.

The Setup

Last week’s macro calendar was heavy, and the data cut decisively against the bulls. The Fed Chair Nomination Vote passed without market impact. The PPI data